The latest deal for 20-20-0 plus 13S content compound fertilizer in India is eye-catching, at $400 CIF (ton price, same below), which is on par with previous business. But in West Africa, the price of 15-15-15 content compound fertilizer did rise, pushing up market expectations of large-scale tenders in West Africa. In the eastern part of the continent, the tender to be awarded to the Moroccan Phosphate Group (OCP) for just under 1.36 million tonnes of NPS/NPSB by the Ethiopian Agribusiness Corporation has yet to emerge.

China's compound fertilizer imports climbed to 136,000 tons in July from 44,000 tons in the same month last year, largely due to increased shipments from Russia. From January to July, China's imports of compound fertilizer reached 768,000 tons, compared with only 442,000 tons in the first seven months of 2022.

Prices will continue to rise slowly in most markets and most products over the next few weeks, but the recent weakness in nitrogen fertilizer makes the outlook for the fourth quarter less certain. In addition to the development of the raw material market, the level of demand for composite fertilizers will also be a key factor in determining whether prices continue to rise by the end of 2023.